Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development, Volume 23

Grain market forecast up to the year 2020

Irena Krisčiukaitiene, Salomėja Andrikienė, Aistė Galnaitytė, Andrej Jedik

Abstract

The task of this paper is to present prognoses of the grain market in 2020. Objectives for
the following task are as follow: to analyze domestic use and foreign trade changes in Lithuania,
EU average and world in 2007–2009 and to present grain balances components prognoses up to
2020 according to the world and EU prognoses; to compare and evaluate main grain prices in
Lithuania EU average and world in 2007–2009 and, according to EU dominated prices of relevant
product, to prognoses grain prices in Lithuania. The paper is prepared on the base of the Agriculture
and rural development policies, economic and social research program of the 2009
study “Agriculture sector development prospects for 2020 in accordance with the changing internal
and external factors”. Actual 20070–2009 data related to the main grain products (wheat,
barley and rye) balance components (production, consumption, exports, imports, losses) was
used for the paper. The main methods are as follow: traditional, heuristic, graphical and econometric
partial equilibrium linear programming model AGMEMOD. Results of work: gathered
background material prepared by the econometric model, which provides grain market forecasts.

Keyword(s): forecasting, grain market, support, prices, makroindicators


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Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development eISSN 2345-0355

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 Unported License. Responsible editor: Dr Audrius Gargasas.