Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development, Volume 22

Livestock sector forecast up to the year 2020

Irena Kriščiukaitienė, Aistė Galnaitytė, Salomėja Andrikienė, aAndrej Jedik


The purpose of this paper is to present prognoses of the livestock sector in 2020. Objectives
for the following task are as follow: to analyze and present the key internal and external factors
affecting the livestock sector development, to evaluate the current ongoing agricultural income
support policies and the EU single market price, and their trends, determine the reasons for
the decreasing livestock sector in Lithuania and submit proposals for improvement situation. The
paper is prepared on the base of the Agriculture and rural development policies, economic and
social research program of the 2009 study “Agriculture sector development prospects for 2020 in
accordance with the changing internal and external factors”. Actual 2000–2009 data related to
the main livestock products (milk, beef, pork and poultry balance components (production, consumption,
exports, imports, losses) was used for the paper. The main methods are as follow: traditional,
heuristic, graphical and econometric partial equilibrium linear programming model
AGMEMOD. Results of work: gathered background material prepared by the econometric model,
which provides assistance livestock sector forecasts.

Keyword(s): forecasting, livestock, makroindicators, prices, sector, support

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Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development eISSN 2345-0355

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 Unported License. Responsible editor: Dr Audrius Gargasas.