Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development, Volume 22

Forecasting in the strategic management documents of agricultural sector

Aistė Galnaitytė


In the midway of the 2007–2013 Agricultural sector programming period, the new programming
period starting from 2014 is already the subject of the debates. In order to be well
prepared for the new programming period, it is necessary to start to work on strategy preparation
The paper seeks to highlight the importance of forecasting preparing strategic management
documents of agricultural sector, to explore the usage of forecasting methods in the previous
strategic documents of agricultural sector and to propose presumptions to improve forecast
quality and increase its use. During the investigation Lithuanian and foreign literature on the
forecasting in the strategic management issues was reviewed, strategic documents of agricultural
sector starting from 2000 were analysed and the use of forecasting for strategic documents
preparation was assessed.
After the investigation carried out, it was identified, that systematic integrated quantitative
and qualitative usage of the forecasting methods, could serve the creation of strategies, in
particular useful could be the use of scenario analysis method, what helps to select the best objective
strategic decisions for the future. Thus the basis for the future agricultural sector development
strategy could be systematic, integrated, on scientific methods based agricultural sector
development prognosis and actual alternative scenarios of the agricultural sector development,
based on various internal and external assumptions. For the agricultural policy makers and
stakeholders it would facilitate rational and objective strategic decisions making and improve
their quality.

Keyword(s): agricultural sector, forecasting, strategic documents

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Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development eISSN 2345-0355

This journal is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 Unported License. Responsible editor: Dr Audrius Gargasas.